* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/06/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 104 105 102 94 75 49 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 104 105 102 94 75 49 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 105 105 100 92 75 58 43 33 28 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 8 12 11 16 18 16 21 27 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 6 10 8 3 8 2 12 5 14 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 119 114 132 124 118 129 155 189 207 200 211 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.2 27.5 26.8 26.2 24.7 23.0 22.0 21.8 21.5 21.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 146 138 131 125 110 92 81 79 75 76 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.5 -51.1 -50.4 -50.9 -51.1 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -50.8 -50.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 63 62 59 57 59 58 53 48 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 33 35 34 32 29 24 19 13 8 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 60 62 62 66 62 60 30 24 -2 9 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 17 21 34 19 -47 -28 13 38 30 33 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 1 0 -2 -3 0 0 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 498 490 486 478 400 233 104 -1 6 -66 -13 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.2 17.9 18.6 19.3 20.9 22.9 24.7 26.3 27.7 29.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.0 109.5 109.9 110.2 110.7 111.2 111.9 112.6 113.3 113.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 9 10 9 8 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 14 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 417 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -6. -14. -25. -37. -46. -54. -59. -62. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 5. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -2. -6. -13. -21. -29. -36. -44. -43. -42. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 2. -6. -25. -51. -74. -98.-117.-137.-143.-148. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/06/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/06/15 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##