* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/06/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 119 116 107 96 67 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 115 119 116 107 96 67 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 115 116 110 100 88 66 47 35 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 10 13 12 17 15 17 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 6 5 5 4 6 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 143 156 147 144 130 136 182 201 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.4 26.7 26.0 25.2 23.5 21.9 21.7 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 137 130 123 115 97 81 79 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.1 -50.7 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.4 -51.0 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 4 2 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 63 61 59 60 57 56 52 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 35 35 33 32 28 23 15 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 65 64 69 63 57 35 20 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 24 20 -9 -31 -7 -12 42 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 5 4 2 0 -3 1 -6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 498 488 466 373 282 137 60 34 -48 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 18.0 18.7 19.6 20.4 22.2 24.1 26.0 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.2 109.6 110.0 110.3 110.5 111.1 111.9 112.6 113.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 426 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -15. -29. -44. -57. -67. -72. -75. -78. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 10. 9. 5. 2. 0. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -9. -17. -28. -36. -36. -37. -36. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 1. -8. -19. -48. -79.-107.-131.-138.-145.-150.-154. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/06/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/06/15 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##