* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/07/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 96 84 71 57 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 96 84 71 57 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 105 96 86 75 64 44 30 28 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 18 16 18 20 19 21 24 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 2 4 8 7 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 108 118 131 148 157 196 215 219 217 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 25.7 24.9 23.8 22.6 21.5 21.9 21.8 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 120 112 101 89 77 81 79 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -50.7 -50.4 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 1 2 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 61 59 55 58 57 55 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 32 29 28 27 20 14 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 67 65 52 48 43 28 12 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 -26 -22 -8 19 10 52 38 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 -4 -3 -8 -5 -3 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 456 359 268 181 141 25 -53 -14 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.7 20.6 21.7 22.8 25.1 27.1 28.9 30.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.2 110.5 110.8 111.2 111.6 112.4 112.9 113.6 114.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 11 12 12 11 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 437 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -12. -20. -37. -49. -59. -67. -71. -74. -76. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -13. -17. -19. -21. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -3. -5. -8. -18. -27. -37. -41. -41. -42. -41. -40. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -21. -34. -48. -80.-104.-126.-143.-151.-160.-165.-172. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/07/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/07/15 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##