* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/07/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 85 74 59 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 85 74 59 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 87 77 67 57 40 26 25 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 18 19 19 20 19 25 31 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -1 1 6 4 6 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 126 133 141 153 175 206 209 216 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.2 24.4 23.2 22.1 21.3 20.7 19.5 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 115 107 95 83 74 68 61 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 -50.8 -50.3 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 2 2 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 60 57 55 55 53 47 44 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 31 29 26 22 17 10 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 64 59 50 50 23 21 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -11 -9 14 6 19 17 20 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 0 -2 0 1 -2 1 0 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 404 319 244 178 123 60 -18 4 -35 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.2 21.0 22.2 23.3 25.3 26.9 28.7 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.6 110.9 111.2 111.6 111.9 112.7 113.5 114.3 115.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 11 12 11 10 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -11. -18. -34. -46. -57. -65. -68. -70. -72. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -19. -22. -25. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -5. -10. -19. -29. -36. -41. -41. -42. -41. -40. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -21. -36. -53. -82.-108.-129.-147.-154.-161.-166.-172. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/07/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/07/15 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##