* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/07/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 79 67 51 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 79 67 51 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 80 70 59 49 34 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 14 15 17 16 20 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 5 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 123 131 144 176 204 207 211 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 24.3 23.1 21.9 21.3 20.7 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 106 94 82 75 69 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 56 54 54 53 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 29 25 22 16 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 59 51 48 28 23 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 0 19 10 -4 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 2 -1 2 -1 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 335 237 180 126 30 11 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 21.1 22.2 23.4 24.6 26.6 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.9 111.2 111.6 112.1 112.5 113.4 114.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 12 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -13. -21. -36. -49. -55. -60. -63. -65. -66. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -4. -9. -19. -30. -31. -31. -30. -31. -30. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -23. -39. -55. -85.-113.-122.-130.-135.-140.-144.-149. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/07/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/07/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##