* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/07/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 58 46 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 58 46 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 59 50 43 36 26 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 16 14 16 25 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 5 4 3 9 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 135 137 168 193 205 210 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 23.5 22.4 21.8 21.5 20.4 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 98 87 80 77 66 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 3 2 3 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 56 54 52 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 24 22 18 12 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 55 49 24 17 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 28 19 1 10 31 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 3 1 -4 -4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 240 159 109 45 40 -61 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 22.1 23.2 24.3 25.4 27.5 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.9 111.2 111.6 112.1 112.5 113.7 114.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):343/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -15. -26. -35. -39. -43. -45. -45. -47. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -15. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -11. -11. -10. -9. -7. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -9. -20. -28. -29. -29. -28. -29. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -12. -24. -37. -51. -78.-100.-109.-115.-120.-125.-128.-133. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/07/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/07/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##