* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/08/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 45 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 45 35 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 45 37 33 28 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 12 13 15 17 28 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 5 6 10 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 152 172 198 204 192 212 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.7 22.6 22.0 21.6 21.3 21.6 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 89 82 78 75 78 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.1 -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -50.9 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 3 3 3 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 59 56 55 52 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 20 18 15 9 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 42 27 18 27 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 23 11 25 40 36 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 -1 -1 -2 -6 0 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 158 110 45 30 17 -28 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 23.1 24.2 25.3 26.4 28.7 31.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.1 111.5 111.8 112.4 113.0 113.6 113.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -7. -11. -18. -21. -24. -26. -27. -27. -28. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -11. -15. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -7. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -11. -9. -7. -7. -4. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -3. -5. -10. -21. -27. -27. -27. -27. -28. -27. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -20. -31. -43. -66. -78. -87. -94.-100.-106.-110.-113. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/08/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/08/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##