* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVES EP942015 06/08/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 33 34 36 38 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 24 25 26 25 26 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 4 6 4 4 3 6 12 15 17 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -3 -4 0 -3 -5 -7 -8 -4 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 175 230 168 187 196 193 227 275 282 258 260 256 256 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.8 30.3 30.6 30.6 30.4 30.1 29.6 28.7 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 156 158 161 167 169 169 166 162 157 149 144 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 86 84 83 82 80 78 74 73 74 74 75 71 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 65 65 72 74 63 62 69 97 89 96 92 97 200 MB DIV 170 128 101 79 73 40 45 51 49 56 39 55 46 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 1 2 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 364 323 283 243 191 92 44 10 -30 -84 -120 -103 -20 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.6 11.1 11.7 12.2 13.4 14.3 15.1 15.8 16.4 16.8 17.4 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 90.0 90.3 90.7 91.0 91.3 92.0 92.6 93.0 93.2 93.2 93.3 93.5 93.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 19 21 24 28 26 15 47 45 39 35 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 31/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 9. 11. 13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVES 06/08/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVES 06/08/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##