* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/08/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 34 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 35 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 35 28 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 16 19 28 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 7 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 197 202 195 199 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.8 22.8 22.7 22.0 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 91 91 90 83 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 55 55 53 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 15 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 15 17 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 35 50 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -3 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 16 25 -25 -45 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.7 26.8 27.9 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.8 112.4 112.9 113.6 114.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 13 CX,CY: -2/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -11. -12. -14. -13. -12. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -11. -16. -20. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -6. -10. -13. -13. -14. -14. -13. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -14. -23. -34. -46. -56. -66. -74. -81. -87. -91. -95. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/08/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/08/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##