* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 06/08/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 35 41 47 60 72 81 85 88 89 89 87 V (KT) LAND 25 29 35 41 47 60 72 81 85 88 89 89 65 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 29 31 35 43 53 66 81 94 103 106 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 9 11 13 10 10 11 15 16 16 13 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -5 -5 -2 0 -4 -2 -3 0 4 5 6 SHEAR DIR 75 93 118 124 119 107 75 76 78 71 75 85 36 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 166 166 167 166 165 163 162 164 165 164 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.2 -52.6 -51.7 -52.1 -51.3 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 8 7 10 9 11 9 10 8 700-500 MB RH 83 81 79 76 76 75 72 70 69 68 69 71 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 11 11 11 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 54 55 57 57 56 61 63 57 49 55 51 75 72 200 MB DIV 176 145 124 106 67 64 49 79 84 86 79 103 67 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 4 LAND (KM) 638 602 567 526 495 425 319 249 210 182 158 85 -45 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.1 10.7 11.9 12.9 13.7 14.2 14.5 14.6 15.1 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 93.0 93.4 93.8 94.2 94.7 95.7 96.9 97.9 98.6 98.7 98.3 97.3 96.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 7 7 8 8 7 6 2 1 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 22 26 39 72 51 45 54 55 48 36 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 11. 11. 10. 12. 12. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 22. 35. 47. 56. 60. 63. 64. 64. 62. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 06/08/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 58% is 4.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 06/08/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##