* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/08/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 29 28 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 22 28 33 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 8 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 209 199 201 209 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.6 22.4 22.0 21.8 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 89 86 82 79 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 54 54 52 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 14 11 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 19 22 16 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 42 33 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -6 -1 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 30 -44 -39 -36 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.1 27.1 28.1 29.0 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.7 113.2 113.6 114.0 114.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 15 CX,CY: -4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -9. -8. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -10. -19. -27. -32. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -13. -20. -29. -40. -52. -63. -74. -83. -92. -98.-103. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/08/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/08/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##