* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 06/08/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 45 57 69 74 79 83 86 83 77 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 45 57 69 74 79 83 86 83 77 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 35 40 50 63 77 90 99 105 108 109 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 14 14 15 16 17 17 21 20 18 10 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -6 -3 0 -5 -5 -3 -3 0 0 2 4 SHEAR DIR 98 109 104 95 95 86 67 66 77 73 74 62 5 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 167 165 165 166 166 167 165 164 159 164 167 168 168 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 79 75 73 74 73 71 68 68 66 67 71 75 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 10 10 11 12 13 11 12 14 14 11 7 850 MB ENV VOR 69 69 68 65 62 63 55 57 36 34 30 49 64 200 MB DIV 151 119 90 71 60 50 64 81 78 98 105 92 55 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 -1 -5 0 2 LAND (KM) 598 598 603 584 533 461 407 373 360 338 295 167 19 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.5 10.9 11.7 12.4 13.0 13.3 13.3 13.3 14.2 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 94.5 95.0 95.4 95.9 96.4 97.5 98.7 99.6 100.0 99.5 98.0 96.3 95.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 5 6 7 7 7 6 4 0 5 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 25 35 51 48 49 56 56 60 49 36 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 425 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 37. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 5. 8. 9. 5. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 32. 44. 49. 54. 58. 61. 58. 52. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 06/08/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 06/08/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##