* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/09/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 25 25 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 32 37 42 42 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 6 3 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 202 206 211 217 222 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.6 20.4 20.4 21.6 21.7 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 79 66 65 77 78 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 -50.6 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 1 0 1 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 52 50 46 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 11 8 7 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 16 16 4 -1 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 41 45 33 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 1 -3 -2 -13 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -54 9 -17 -23 -41 -151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.3 28.3 29.3 30.3 31.2 33.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.5 114.1 114.7 115.0 115.2 115.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 15 CX,CY: -5/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -8. -12. -13. -14. -15. -13. -12. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. -6. -18. -33. -46. -55. -60. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -16. -17. -16. -16. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -19. -26. -41. -56. -72. -88.-102.-114.-122.-129. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/09/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/09/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##