* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 06/09/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 39 45 55 66 72 76 80 77 74 72 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 39 45 55 66 72 76 80 77 74 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 29 32 35 45 57 71 82 89 94 99 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 13 14 13 17 21 23 25 22 11 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -5 -3 -3 -5 -3 -4 1 0 2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 117 103 86 91 86 77 68 77 74 81 71 14 58 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.0 29.6 29.6 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 166 164 164 166 166 167 163 157 158 166 167 167 165 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -52.3 -52.5 -51.8 -52.4 -51.5 -52.3 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 10 9 9 8 10 700-500 MB RH 75 75 75 74 74 72 68 67 64 68 74 73 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 12 12 12 13 15 12 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 61 55 53 58 62 63 58 40 41 26 46 46 72 200 MB DIV 143 115 73 51 54 46 80 74 76 110 104 46 39 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 -4 -3 0 -1 1 4 LAND (KM) 688 667 648 613 578 522 472 442 422 386 277 133 -29 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.3 10.7 11.4 12.2 12.8 13.0 12.8 13.3 14.6 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.5 96.9 97.4 97.9 99.0 100.0 100.7 100.7 99.4 97.0 95.7 95.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 5 5 6 7 6 5 3 3 9 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 29 34 40 41 41 46 44 45 53 46 33 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 358 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 34. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 18. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 8. 4. -2. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 20. 30. 41. 47. 51. 55. 52. 49. 47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 06/09/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 06/09/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##