* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/09/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 24 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 25 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 36 40 41 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 208 211 217 224 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.9 21.9 23.2 23.4 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 71 81 94 96 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -50.6 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 1 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 50 46 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 9 7 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 12 2 5 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 53 32 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -11 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 0 -21 11 7 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.5 29.5 30.4 31.3 32.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.0 114.3 114.6 114.7 114.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 14 CX,CY: -5/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 3. -4. -16. -30. -43. -52. -57. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -5. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -13. -22. -34. -49. -65. -80. -91.-100.-107. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/09/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/09/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##