* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 06/09/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 45 50 57 61 66 70 67 63 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 45 50 57 61 66 70 67 63 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 36 43 51 57 62 66 71 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 13 12 13 17 16 17 20 18 14 17 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -5 -2 -3 -3 -1 -1 -2 0 2 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 103 100 102 95 81 68 56 69 64 71 67 62 61 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.1 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 30.0 30.2 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 166 166 168 165 159 156 155 158 163 166 167 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 76 76 75 73 71 70 68 67 71 72 74 73 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 13 14 13 12 10 11 12 15 16 13 9 850 MB ENV VOR 53 50 49 48 53 55 53 35 31 24 29 32 53 200 MB DIV 120 66 51 44 28 44 68 68 61 61 77 82 64 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -3 -1 0 -1 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 711 669 631 586 542 456 411 397 392 386 337 227 53 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.7 10.1 10.6 11.1 12.2 13.1 13.5 13.6 13.4 13.4 14.1 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 96.4 96.8 97.2 97.7 98.3 99.6 100.7 101.3 101.4 100.8 99.7 98.8 98.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 7 8 7 5 2 1 4 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 27 31 38 41 40 46 45 40 39 45 60 58 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 319 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. 0. 1. 5. 8. 3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 25. 32. 36. 41. 46. 42. 38. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 06/09/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 06/09/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##