* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 06/09/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 31 36 42 52 59 62 59 58 55 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 31 36 42 52 59 53 37 30 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 28 32 38 45 52 51 36 30 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 10 12 13 13 12 8 8 11 9 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -4 -3 -1 0 1 3 2 3 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 115 103 87 73 63 58 66 53 48 355 347 325 326 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 29.7 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 166 167 167 166 164 164 165 165 160 146 145 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.2 -52.6 -51.9 -52.5 -51.5 -52.3 -51.5 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 10 8 10 9 10 8 11 9 700-500 MB RH 79 79 78 76 76 73 72 73 74 75 73 71 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 15 14 13 12 11 13 14 15 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 40 41 39 47 45 56 45 58 68 87 72 89 89 200 MB DIV 98 62 57 46 39 61 78 100 64 87 63 53 74 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 2 8 3 3 3 LAND (KM) 732 661 578 504 434 306 215 144 78 -10 -118 -77 39 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.8 10.5 11.2 11.9 13.2 14.1 14.7 15.2 15.9 16.8 18.2 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.2 96.4 96.8 97.2 98.0 98.4 98.1 97.5 96.8 96.3 96.0 95.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 8 8 8 8 6 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 39 50 46 46 48 46 39 7 37 19 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 13. 12. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. 1. 3. 4. 0. -2. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 27. 34. 37. 34. 33. 30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 06/09/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 06/09/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##