* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 06/10/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 36 42 51 60 65 66 64 66 67 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 36 42 51 60 65 58 38 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 37 44 52 60 67 39 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 14 15 15 13 9 10 13 15 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -2 -2 0 2 1 3 3 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 83 72 60 59 61 74 42 51 46 50 45 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 29.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 167 167 165 164 164 164 165 166 160 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -51.9 -52.5 -51.9 -52.6 -51.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 8 10 8 11 9 12 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 76 75 73 72 72 73 75 74 71 68 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 9 9 11 11 11 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 50 51 50 52 32 39 37 63 65 87 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 36 39 52 55 67 79 54 60 54 45 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 1 4 -3 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 623 555 488 436 385 302 235 178 109 -5 -153 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 3 3 3 4 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 43 45 42 44 48 47 45 46 47 41 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 37. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 17. 26. 35. 40. 41. 39. 41. 42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 06/10/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 06/10/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##