* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 06/10/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 44 55 60 60 56 52 52 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 44 55 60 38 30 31 31 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 45 33 29 31 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 13 12 11 10 7 10 13 11 10 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 7 7 6 4 -1 2 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 59 57 52 52 60 34 39 35 17 345 359 302 349 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.2 29.8 28.4 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 166 165 164 164 165 165 161 147 143 142 142 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -51.5 -52.2 -51.5 -52.2 -51.3 -52.1 -51.5 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 7 10 8 10 8 11 9 12 9 700-500 MB RH 78 76 75 75 74 73 76 73 72 70 67 69 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 12 14 13 11 7 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 60 62 55 45 52 49 73 71 91 72 97 69 200 MB DIV 66 73 66 81 95 98 73 59 53 66 59 58 44 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -2 -1 1 4 5 2 6 5 4 0 LAND (KM) 450 383 315 259 207 137 78 0 -109 -94 20 68 93 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.5 13.2 13.8 14.3 14.9 15.3 15.9 16.8 18.1 19.1 19.8 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 97.5 98.0 98.5 98.6 98.8 98.6 98.1 97.4 96.8 96.2 95.8 95.7 95.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 7 6 4 3 4 5 6 6 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 41 40 43 44 48 51 48 9 40 20 7 13 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 34. 36. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 0. -3. -8. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 30. 35. 35. 31. 27. 27. 27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 06/10/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 06/10/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##