* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032015 06/11/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 45 50 62 71 77 79 75 71 66 55 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 45 50 62 71 77 79 75 71 66 55 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 37 41 45 53 60 67 72 77 81 84 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 16 15 14 15 14 12 12 8 13 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 1 6 7 11 10 6 5 2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 48 52 58 56 49 60 52 52 52 38 72 88 85 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.7 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.1 29.7 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 160 159 158 162 162 164 165 164 161 160 160 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -51.4 -52.1 -51.4 -52.0 -51.2 -51.5 -50.7 -51.1 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 9 8 10 8 10 9 11 8 8 700-500 MB RH 76 75 74 73 73 75 73 74 72 67 63 60 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 14 17 18 20 19 17 14 12 5 850 MB ENV VOR 57 55 40 34 41 42 64 53 68 44 64 55 37 200 MB DIV 80 82 96 112 126 107 76 70 104 60 38 47 58 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -1 0 1 3 1 3 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 406 397 389 366 343 260 211 156 96 80 112 113 145 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.6 14.2 14.6 15.1 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 99.4 99.8 100.2 100.2 100.3 99.8 99.6 99.5 99.5 100.3 101.8 103.3 104.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 6 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 41 42 42 43 44 51 54 56 58 42 27 17 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 426 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 9. 11. 10. 7. 3. 0. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 21. 32. 41. 47. 49. 45. 41. 36. 25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032015 THREE 06/11/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 54% is 4.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 THREE 06/11/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##