* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032015 06/11/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 44 54 62 68 67 70 70 74 73 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 44 54 62 68 67 70 70 74 73 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 37 41 45 50 55 60 64 69 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 14 14 15 12 15 15 13 10 10 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 5 6 7 9 5 1 3 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 57 61 58 45 47 52 43 46 41 34 35 34 92 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.2 30.3 30.1 29.8 29.5 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 160 158 158 159 161 163 164 164 162 159 159 157 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 76 76 74 75 75 74 73 71 70 63 60 56 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 14 15 17 17 15 15 15 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 61 47 37 44 42 48 59 56 46 27 57 32 37 200 MB DIV 75 89 103 113 110 75 51 58 39 20 29 24 34 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 3 3 2 3 3 0 1 LAND (KM) 391 371 352 327 303 238 175 126 107 110 126 139 147 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.9 17.4 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 100.0 100.3 100.5 100.4 100.3 100.2 99.7 99.5 100.0 101.2 103.1 104.3 104.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 3 2 3 3 2 2 5 8 8 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 43 42 41 44 46 49 55 58 51 34 19 12 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 447 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 5. 6. 7. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 24. 32. 38. 37. 40. 40. 44. 43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032015 THREE 06/11/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 THREE 06/11/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##