* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032015 06/11/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 54 62 68 72 70 67 64 61 56 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 48 54 62 68 72 70 67 64 61 56 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 47 52 56 60 63 66 69 72 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 15 16 12 15 16 15 9 10 9 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 6 8 8 9 8 4 4 5 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 67 56 46 51 54 53 47 45 55 45 57 64 57 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 157 158 158 158 160 161 160 159 159 156 154 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 -51.1 -51.8 -50.9 -51.3 -50.5 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 9 8 10 9 10 8 10 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 74 72 72 71 72 73 72 69 69 63 58 57 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 16 18 19 19 19 17 14 13 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 44 37 45 46 41 59 46 56 42 46 32 31 14 200 MB DIV 78 91 84 86 85 80 36 50 48 50 32 33 2 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 1 3 2 0 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 378 351 325 302 280 255 210 179 173 188 186 206 187 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.9 17.4 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 100.4 100.6 100.8 100.7 100.7 100.6 100.5 100.7 101.5 102.7 104.3 105.3 105.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 2 2 1 2 3 5 7 7 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 38 38 38 39 40 41 42 40 32 24 14 10 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 27. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 6. 2. 1. -2. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 27. 33. 37. 35. 32. 29. 26. 21. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032015 THREE 06/11/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 THREE 06/11/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##