* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/11/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 60 64 71 75 73 77 75 79 73 66 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 60 64 71 75 73 77 75 79 73 66 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 57 61 64 68 70 72 74 75 77 78 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 14 9 9 14 15 9 6 4 0 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 9 11 10 13 6 4 3 1 0 4 11 SHEAR DIR 47 29 30 11 48 41 43 56 35 31 2 79 78 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 158 157 158 160 160 161 159 159 158 156 151 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -50.9 -50.4 -50.6 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 74 73 71 73 73 75 72 72 69 66 61 60 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 19 20 21 23 23 20 22 20 23 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 33 45 45 36 40 57 49 54 37 47 25 32 7 200 MB DIV 110 98 84 80 77 64 47 51 39 30 48 20 11 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 1 5 4 2 3 2 2 0 -2 LAND (KM) 303 289 275 268 261 226 205 186 161 139 168 196 208 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.5 16.2 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 100.3 100.5 100.6 100.6 100.5 100.4 100.6 101.1 102.0 103.2 104.6 105.7 106.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 5 6 7 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 43 42 40 41 42 44 41 36 27 19 12 8 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 10. 11. 7. 10. 7. 11. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 19. 26. 30. 28. 32. 30. 34. 28. 21. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/11/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/11/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##