* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/12/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 62 66 71 72 72 73 74 72 65 57 V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 62 66 71 72 72 73 74 72 65 57 V (KT) LGE mod 50 56 60 63 65 68 70 71 72 72 73 73 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 9 11 14 15 13 8 11 3 2 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 10 12 10 11 13 9 4 0 0 0 5 2 SHEAR DIR 26 25 40 56 42 52 39 41 21 354 60 114 98 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.8 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 158 159 159 159 158 157 157 158 157 151 145 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -51.5 -50.8 -51.6 -50.8 -51.2 -50.4 -50.9 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 10 9 10 8 10 7 8 5 7 700-500 MB RH 72 72 73 72 73 72 71 72 69 66 62 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 21 21 22 24 22 21 21 22 20 17 13 850 MB ENV VOR 43 44 38 46 59 49 68 40 41 27 28 10 11 200 MB DIV 105 81 70 64 73 47 45 51 51 31 42 4 13 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 3 6 3 1 4 4 3 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 267 258 250 237 224 206 218 218 202 196 206 211 219 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.3 15.4 15.7 16.2 16.8 17.6 18.4 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 100.4 100.5 100.7 100.7 100.8 101.1 101.6 102.2 103.1 104.3 105.7 106.7 107.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 7 7 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 43 41 40 39 39 36 33 28 22 15 8 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 6. 9. 7. 6. 6. 7. 5. 1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 21. 22. 22. 23. 24. 22. 15. 7. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/12/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/12/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##