* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/12/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 57 60 64 65 67 65 70 69 61 55 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 57 60 64 65 67 65 70 69 61 55 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 53 54 55 55 56 57 58 60 61 61 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 11 14 17 16 12 10 7 5 2 3 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 12 10 12 12 7 5 2 0 -1 1 7 7 SHEAR DIR 38 44 47 41 38 50 31 11 11 320 317 221 143 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.6 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 158 158 158 158 159 158 157 157 154 149 141 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.0 -50.7 -50.7 -51.0 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 72 72 71 72 71 70 72 71 68 66 64 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 19 19 21 21 20 20 18 22 22 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 44 33 38 56 53 50 45 27 27 12 18 3 9 200 MB DIV 82 58 50 60 50 50 43 44 31 33 29 6 28 700-850 TADV 3 4 2 5 6 0 4 5 4 3 3 3 1 LAND (KM) 255 250 244 233 222 221 212 225 187 214 218 225 222 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.6 17.2 17.7 18.6 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 100.6 100.7 100.8 100.9 101.0 101.2 101.7 102.6 103.8 105.1 106.1 107.0 107.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 2 1 2 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 41 40 39 38 37 36 32 26 17 12 7 5 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 6. 4. 10. 9. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 15. 17. 15. 20. 19. 11. 5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/12/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/12/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##