* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/12/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 54 57 59 62 61 65 65 61 56 49 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 54 57 59 62 61 65 65 61 56 49 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 51 52 52 53 53 55 58 60 63 64 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 14 17 15 15 10 9 7 4 4 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 9 11 8 4 1 1 0 0 1 1 4 SHEAR DIR 40 40 31 36 42 41 27 21 34 34 133 130 175 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.3 28.7 28.0 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 157 158 159 157 157 159 157 150 143 137 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -51.2 -51.8 -51.2 -51.3 -50.4 -51.0 -50.4 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 8 9 7 9 6 7 5 6 4 700-500 MB RH 72 70 71 71 72 70 72 69 66 62 60 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 19 21 19 19 16 18 18 16 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 29 36 53 52 43 59 32 27 11 18 7 12 -3 200 MB DIV 60 47 53 47 44 52 46 44 43 44 1 26 -8 700-850 TADV 4 3 6 5 3 1 2 5 5 1 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 250 239 228 227 227 218 224 204 191 191 208 213 248 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.2 16.9 17.7 18.6 19.7 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 100.7 100.8 100.9 101.0 101.1 101.6 102.3 103.2 104.4 105.6 106.8 107.6 108.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 1 2 3 4 6 7 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 40 39 39 39 39 39 41 32 13 7 6 2 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. -1. 2. 2. -1. -5. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 11. 15. 15. 12. 6. -1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/12/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/12/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##