* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/12/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 54 54 57 60 58 62 58 50 44 40 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 54 54 57 60 58 62 58 50 44 40 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 50 50 50 50 51 53 56 59 61 64 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 16 16 17 13 8 7 2 2 2 9 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 9 8 4 2 2 0 0 -2 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 49 41 37 42 41 39 41 18 35 36 132 187 200 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 159 160 159 158 157 158 157 156 147 135 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 72 72 74 72 69 70 68 64 63 62 62 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 19 20 19 19 19 16 18 15 11 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 36 49 48 38 37 48 28 22 7 21 -2 3 -2 200 MB DIV 68 76 75 63 58 40 59 48 57 26 6 -3 -45 700-850 TADV 0 3 2 1 0 2 3 4 3 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 245 243 241 234 228 194 197 172 176 147 107 146 159 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.6 16.0 16.6 17.2 18.1 19.1 20.5 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 100.6 100.6 100.5 100.7 100.9 101.5 102.3 103.5 104.6 105.5 106.0 107.1 108.4 STM SPEED (KT) 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 7 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 40 41 41 40 39 39 44 25 11 7 9 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. 0. -4. -10. -15. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 4. 7. 10. 8. 12. 8. 0. -6. -10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/12/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/12/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##