* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/13/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 57 58 60 60 60 57 50 45 43 41 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 57 58 60 60 60 57 50 45 43 41 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 52 54 55 57 60 63 66 69 71 72 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 16 16 14 6 7 4 5 4 6 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 7 4 3 3 1 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 43 43 39 55 38 47 9 15 59 111 155 209 187 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.6 29.4 28.9 28.4 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 160 160 160 158 157 160 158 153 147 140 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.1 -51.6 -50.8 -51.4 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.5 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 10 7 9 6 8 6 7 5 7 700-500 MB RH 74 74 71 67 69 68 66 62 59 56 55 54 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 19 18 17 16 13 13 11 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 53 36 31 39 28 26 13 13 8 13 -2 -8 200 MB DIV 91 70 68 51 43 38 68 27 44 -9 -12 -32 -17 700-850 TADV 3 2 1 0 0 1 3 1 -2 -1 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 228 217 206 200 193 182 188 163 145 92 80 158 157 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.7 18.8 20.1 21.4 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 100.2 100.3 100.4 100.6 100.8 101.7 102.8 103.7 104.7 105.6 106.4 107.1 107.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 42 42 42 41 40 41 40 21 9 9 9 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 18. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -9. -15. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 7. 0. -5. -7. -9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/13/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/13/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##