* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/13/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 62 61 61 60 62 58 54 47 43 42 V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 62 61 61 60 62 58 54 47 43 42 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 59 60 61 63 65 68 69 71 71 70 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 15 13 11 9 8 4 2 2 7 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 3 3 3 1 0 -1 -2 0 1 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 54 49 44 56 51 75 51 31 33 253 203 238 215 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 28.9 28.4 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 161 160 161 159 157 158 158 157 153 147 140 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 7 5 700-500 MB RH 76 72 67 67 66 65 62 61 59 58 55 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 16 14 11 9 10 8 7 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 48 29 23 39 38 17 17 -5 7 -5 -5 -17 -2 200 MB DIV 73 55 46 44 41 39 26 31 28 -9 -13 -28 0 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 -1 2 LAND (KM) 223 212 200 195 191 185 171 166 147 92 85 161 165 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.8 18.8 20.0 21.3 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 100.1 100.3 100.5 100.8 101.2 102.1 103.2 104.1 104.9 105.6 106.4 107.1 107.9 STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 3 4 5 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 43 42 41 39 39 44 31 15 8 9 9 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -2. -6. -9. -7. -11. -12. -16. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 6. 6. 5. 7. 3. -1. -8. -12. -13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/13/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/13/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##