* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912015 06/13/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 32 36 34 36 36 37 40 43 44 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 30 29 31 31 32 35 29 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 26 27 29 29 30 32 34 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 25 24 20 15 17 24 24 22 19 15 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 6 6 6 -3 0 0 1 1 4 2 SHEAR DIR 295 281 277 288 302 294 323 320 329 320 326 291 299 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.4 27.9 28.3 28.3 28.3 27.0 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 141 135 131 126 128 135 141 141 141 123 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 130 124 119 113 115 121 126 124 121 105 85 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -52.6 -53.1 -52.4 -52.6 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 7 6 8 8 10 9 12 10 15 11 700-500 MB RH 81 80 78 77 77 78 76 74 70 65 64 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 10 12 12 12 13 10 11 10 10 12 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 32 26 15 14 5 26 21 33 14 3 -33 -47 -73 200 MB DIV 71 67 66 67 43 56 13 37 -1 15 17 12 22 700-850 TADV 10 12 17 21 15 2 -4 -6 -7 0 -6 19 4 LAND (KM) -19 -37 -68 -137 -135 4 151 331 444 243 64 -131 -284 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.9 18.7 19.4 20.1 21.3 22.5 23.9 25.4 27.2 29.1 30.9 32.3 LONG(DEG W) 88.4 88.5 88.7 88.8 88.9 89.3 90.0 91.1 92.5 93.7 94.2 94.2 94.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 8 7 7 6 8 9 10 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 60 55 55 31 18 4 12 26 24 29 22 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -2. -5. -8. -8. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 9. 11. 11. 12. 15. 18. 19. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912015 INVEST 06/13/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912015 INVEST 06/13/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912015 INVEST 06/13/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED