* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/13/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 71 72 71 68 67 63 60 52 45 43 41 V (KT) LAND 65 69 71 72 71 68 67 63 60 52 45 43 41 V (KT) LGE mod 65 70 74 77 78 80 82 83 83 82 80 77 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 11 10 9 7 7 8 2 3 6 6 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 0 1 0 -1 -4 -3 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 36 39 34 36 42 45 42 58 102 105 235 164 199 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.5 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 162 161 159 157 158 158 155 152 147 141 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -50.8 -51.4 -50.9 -51.4 -51.0 -51.6 -51.6 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 8 8 9 7 8 6 8 6 8 5 700-500 MB RH 72 67 69 68 67 66 62 61 58 57 56 56 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 17 16 14 10 10 8 7 4 2 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR 21 20 34 34 23 28 8 5 -3 1 -13 -15 -13 200 MB DIV 65 59 42 37 38 70 26 37 0 5 -21 -8 -5 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 2 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 3 LAND (KM) 213 199 186 185 185 180 164 157 117 86 63 145 210 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.6 16.2 16.6 17.2 18.3 19.3 20.5 21.2 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 100.1 100.3 100.4 100.8 101.3 102.3 103.3 104.3 105.3 105.9 106.3 106.9 107.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 5 5 5 5 7 6 6 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 43 41 40 37 37 42 30 14 8 8 9 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -4. -10. -11. -14. -15. -20. -23. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. 2. -2. -5. -13. -20. -22. -24. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/13/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/13/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##