* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912015 06/13/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 36 36 37 35 38 39 40 41 39 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 30 31 29 32 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 27 29 29 30 31 30 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 27 24 18 15 26 22 26 16 17 11 21 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 5 5 3 1 -3 -2 -3 0 5 8 1 SHEAR DIR 283 276 292 305 303 321 315 322 310 318 271 266 270 SST (C) 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.4 27.9 28.3 28.2 28.2 25.5 23.6 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 140 133 129 127 128 135 141 140 140 108 93 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 130 122 118 115 115 122 127 124 122 93 80 75 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 8 8 8 9 10 10 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 80 80 78 77 77 75 74 67 66 63 58 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 13 14 13 13 11 13 13 13 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 26 15 12 1 14 26 35 6 12 -28 5 -23 -10 200 MB DIV 75 77 48 31 46 24 21 16 31 44 52 59 6 700-850 TADV 16 23 22 16 10 -6 -9 -11 1 -17 5 0 5 LAND (KM) -31 -81 -145 -93 -6 165 348 421 178 -32 -217 -333 -415 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.9 19.7 20.5 21.2 22.6 24.0 25.6 27.4 29.4 31.5 32.7 33.5 LONG(DEG W) 88.5 88.6 88.8 89.0 89.3 90.1 91.3 93.0 94.5 95.3 95.2 94.5 93.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 10 11 11 11 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 60 54 29 0 3 13 26 20 21 27 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -6. -8. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 9. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912015 INVEST 06/13/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912015 INVEST 06/13/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912015 INVEST 06/13/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED