* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/13/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 81 80 81 75 71 66 57 50 44 41 37 V (KT) LAND 75 79 81 80 81 75 71 66 57 50 44 41 37 V (KT) LGE mod 75 80 84 87 89 90 90 90 88 85 82 79 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 9 8 9 7 6 4 1 4 8 11 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 -2 0 0 -2 3 3 SHEAR DIR 56 46 52 57 80 50 87 67 358 212 246 214 222 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 163 162 161 159 160 162 158 155 152 150 144 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 9 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 69 70 69 66 66 65 62 61 59 57 58 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 17 13 14 10 9 8 5 3 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 23 37 38 24 15 18 6 15 -5 6 -17 15 0 200 MB DIV 56 52 47 45 62 27 44 24 -2 -1 -24 1 -18 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -3 -1 2 1 0 0 -1 0 1 4 LAND (KM) 174 157 140 134 128 135 69 61 23 12 56 104 90 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.7 17.5 18.3 19.2 20.2 21.1 22.1 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 99.9 100.2 100.5 101.0 101.4 102.3 103.2 104.2 105.1 105.7 106.0 106.7 107.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 6 5 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 43 40 38 36 39 45 27 14 7 2 15 20 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -6. -7. -13. -16. -18. -22. -24. -26. -25. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 5. 6. 0. -4. -9. -18. -25. -31. -34. -38. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/13/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/13/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##