* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912015 06/14/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 36 35 36 36 37 36 39 43 41 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 33 34 33 34 34 35 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 31 31 30 31 32 35 31 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 28 21 17 22 23 21 15 16 13 18 20 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 3 0 -2 0 -5 2 1 9 9 7 SHEAR DIR 284 303 315 316 306 328 303 316 289 275 255 281 268 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.8 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.2 26.7 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 130 127 127 128 134 139 138 136 134 124 118 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 119 115 114 115 120 125 122 119 115 103 98 93 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 8 7 10 9 12 10 15 12 17 700-500 MB RH 80 78 75 77 75 73 74 71 70 67 59 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 11 12 13 10 10 8 7 6 7 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 8 -6 -9 18 34 22 40 19 13 -4 12 6 -19 200 MB DIV 86 52 36 55 44 17 33 22 41 15 32 8 11 700-850 TADV 26 11 6 16 4 -12 -6 -10 3 -14 11 -17 1 LAND (KM) -164 -101 -16 65 147 312 414 210 84 -88 -212 -277 -372 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.3 21.0 21.7 22.3 23.5 24.6 25.9 27.3 28.6 29.7 30.1 30.7 LONG(DEG W) 89.0 89.3 89.7 90.1 90.6 91.7 93.3 95.1 96.5 97.5 98.0 98.5 99.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 7 4 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 30 4 3 5 12 22 14 16 13 25 8 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -4. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 9. 13. 11. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912015 INVEST 06/14/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912015 INVEST 06/14/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912015 INVEST 06/14/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED