* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/14/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 78 79 78 76 71 66 58 54 50 47 45 V (KT) LAND 75 78 78 79 78 76 71 66 48 44 40 36 31 V (KT) LGE mod 75 79 81 83 85 87 88 88 63 56 58 59 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 8 8 4 4 5 1 2 8 3 10 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 2 0 -1 -3 -1 0 0 5 3 4 SHEAR DIR 43 46 65 86 64 14 31 46 171 244 204 212 217 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 162 162 161 160 159 161 157 153 152 153 151 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -50.9 -50.6 -51.5 -50.8 -51.6 -51.0 -51.6 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 10 7 8 7 8 6 9 6 9 700-500 MB RH 70 69 67 66 66 65 63 60 58 58 59 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 15 13 12 10 9 6 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 30 9 7 16 0 15 -2 4 -9 -4 23 42 200 MB DIV 59 52 54 61 49 35 39 4 5 -15 -16 -12 -6 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -4 -3 2 3 1 0 0 -1 0 0 6 LAND (KM) 158 151 144 131 118 122 70 29 -20 29 56 56 -29 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.5 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.9 17.6 18.7 19.9 20.7 21.1 22.1 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 100.0 100.3 100.6 101.0 101.4 102.4 103.4 104.3 105.1 105.7 106.0 106.2 106.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 6 4 4 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 42 39 37 36 39 44 24 9 29 10 15 20 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 0. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -3. -4. -8. -11. -15. -17. -22. -21. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -4. -9. -17. -21. -25. -28. -30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/14/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/14/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##