* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912015 06/14/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 34 34 36 37 41 42 43 43 44 43 V (KT) LAND 30 29 33 35 35 37 37 41 31 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 31 31 31 31 32 35 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 20 15 16 21 14 18 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 5 4 -6 -3 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 299 313 308 292 314 326 300 277 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.4 27.3 27.5 28.0 28.3 28.2 28.2 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 129 128 131 138 141 139 139 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 119 119 122 127 125 121 122 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 75 76 73 68 68 66 70 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 15 14 12 10 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -11 13 29 22 16 -10 21 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 51 68 54 21 22 24 30 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 12 16 13 3 -10 -3 -1 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -159 -49 66 207 352 371 235 40 -191 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 13 13 10 8 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 0 4 18 24 18 21 14 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 13. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912015 INVEST 06/14/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912015 INVEST 06/14/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912015 INVEST 06/14/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED