* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/14/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 60 60 60 61 62 61 60 59 57 56 56 V (KT) LAND 65 62 60 60 60 61 62 61 40 32 33 31 27 V (KT) LGE mod 65 62 61 60 61 62 64 66 43 33 36 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 11 8 4 8 4 1 7 6 10 10 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 2 0 3 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 42 63 66 64 46 23 17 27 239 226 212 211 227 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 161 161 160 159 160 159 156 153 154 155 150 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 7 9 7 8 6 9 7 9 7 700-500 MB RH 68 67 66 64 65 64 63 60 64 65 68 65 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 5 7 -1 6 -5 -5 6 14 25 41 43 200 MB DIV 50 52 42 19 28 23 -4 -11 -16 0 -3 16 1 700-850 TADV -1 -2 2 1 1 1 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 121 112 104 100 102 74 76 0 -56 -22 21 0 -111 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.5 18.1 19.2 20.4 21.2 21.4 22.5 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 100.3 100.8 101.3 101.7 102.2 103.3 104.2 104.7 104.8 105.0 105.5 105.7 105.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 5 5 6 5 6 6 5 3 4 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 38 34 35 38 38 24 13 31 25 22 10 3 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/14/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/14/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##