* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/14/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 57 57 58 59 60 61 61 59 57 58 59 V (KT) LAND 60 58 57 57 58 59 60 43 34 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 60 58 57 57 58 60 62 45 34 30 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 4 7 8 2 5 9 12 13 14 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 0 -1 -5 -2 0 0 2 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 52 42 48 12 360 29 17 181 233 203 223 229 254 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 161 161 159 160 161 158 155 153 154 153 147 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 65 64 63 61 61 60 63 62 61 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 11 10 0 -7 4 -20 3 1 35 26 54 32 200 MB DIV 33 30 19 3 7 5 -11 -4 -13 4 -1 11 -17 700-850 TADV 0 -1 2 1 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 88 82 82 88 77 40 22 -48 -10 -33 -28 -66 -141 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.8 18.6 19.8 21.1 21.9 22.3 23.3 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 100.7 101.2 101.6 102.1 102.5 103.2 104.0 104.7 105.1 105.3 105.4 105.6 106.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 5 6 7 5 3 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 33 33 38 37 33 22 6 29 22 26 25 20 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -2. -1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/14/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/14/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##