* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/15/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 60 60 60 61 62 62 63 63 63 63 64 V (KT) LAND 60 59 60 60 60 61 62 51 39 32 29 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 60 59 59 59 60 62 65 55 40 33 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 9 6 8 10 7 7 1 2 8 12 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -1 -3 -4 -4 -1 0 0 2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 29 36 22 3 18 14 33 236 167 213 207 228 233 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 161 159 159 160 159 157 155 155 153 148 146 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 9 7 9 7 10 7 10 7 10 700-500 MB RH 63 61 64 63 64 62 59 63 61 64 59 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 9 5 1 -7 0 -26 -22 -14 -1 23 32 51 44 200 MB DIV 37 24 8 6 -5 -18 -8 -24 1 -6 8 0 4 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 LAND (KM) 85 82 86 77 56 63 44 -14 -23 -27 -29 -96 -163 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.9 18.8 19.8 20.7 21.8 23.0 24.1 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 101.1 101.6 102.1 102.5 102.9 103.8 104.8 105.1 105.1 105.3 105.8 106.0 105.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 4 4 6 6 5 5 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 33 38 37 33 27 17 9 3 26 26 23 15 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/15/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/15/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##