* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/15/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 68 69 67 66 66 65 V (KT) LAND 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 68 62 61 60 60 47 V (KT) LGE mod 60 61 61 63 64 66 69 72 67 71 73 74 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 10 12 8 5 3 3 4 9 10 14 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -2 -3 -4 -4 -5 1 1 3 1 4 SHEAR DIR 16 353 2 25 38 360 30 281 204 219 194 216 211 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 159 159 159 159 158 157 154 153 152 151 144 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 62 64 64 63 62 60 60 59 60 61 62 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -8 -5 5 4 -14 -1 -14 20 15 47 42 62 200 MB DIV 7 2 7 -5 2 -14 0 -15 7 -4 28 -1 13 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -3 -6 LAND (KM) 100 115 122 96 95 91 58 9 20 38 48 30 -22 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.8 16.9 17.2 17.4 18.1 18.7 19.7 20.7 21.5 21.9 23.0 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 101.6 102.1 102.5 103.0 103.5 104.4 104.9 105.3 105.6 105.9 106.1 106.6 107.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 4 4 5 5 3 4 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 38 40 38 30 22 12 9 6 8 17 20 16 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 11. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 7. 6. 6. 5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/15/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/15/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##