* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/16/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 65 65 64 62 61 61 61 60 59 60 V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 65 65 64 62 61 61 61 60 59 60 V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 67 67 67 67 67 66 67 68 70 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 9 7 6 8 8 5 7 5 11 10 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 0 3 -1 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 17 20 6 346 4 330 336 246 228 226 213 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 151 151 148 147 150 151 151 148 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 9 7 10 7 10 7 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 63 59 57 59 57 62 62 65 65 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -8 -16 -20 -17 -13 1 20 37 56 55 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 -4 -20 -16 -7 -21 5 -7 6 5 7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 3 1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 113 113 115 114 98 72 59 68 76 80 105 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.6 18.0 18.3 19.1 20.0 20.8 21.3 21.8 22.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.3 103.7 104.2 104.6 104.9 105.6 106.1 106.2 106.2 106.4 106.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 19 14 10 9 8 7 11 16 20 24 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/16/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/16/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##