* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/16/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 63 62 62 61 60 57 56 55 55 55 56 V (KT) LAND 65 64 63 62 62 61 60 57 56 55 55 55 56 V (KT) LGE mod 65 64 64 63 63 62 61 61 60 59 57 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 7 6 8 7 7 1 8 5 8 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -3 -4 -4 -6 0 -1 4 2 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 37 7 350 3 1 349 233 246 211 221 190 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.1 28.0 28.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 150 150 145 145 144 141 141 142 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 59 57 58 55 58 57 61 61 63 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 2 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -12 -15 -11 -3 -11 16 19 43 43 51 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 -8 -14 -4 -7 -2 3 -22 13 -7 12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 3 0 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 115 113 122 112 98 88 66 84 104 136 154 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.2 18.5 19.4 20.2 20.5 20.5 20.9 21.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.7 104.1 104.5 104.9 105.3 106.0 106.3 106.5 106.7 106.9 107.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 5 3 1 1 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 15 11 8 7 7 6 6 5 7 14 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/16/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/16/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##