* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BILL AL022015 06/16/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 54 56 58 58 57 55 49 45 44 41 V (KT) LAND 50 41 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 29 29 30 V (KT) LGE mod 50 43 36 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 29 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 13 16 13 13 21 19 24 16 20 28 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 1 0 -2 7 4 5 2 8 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 291 259 269 277 244 242 246 233 263 257 263 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.3 27.0 25.5 22.4 20.8 20.3 19.9 17.9 14.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 140 124 109 89 81 78 79 76 71 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 132 120 107 94 79 72 70 71 71 68 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -53.6 -53.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 12 10 10 14 8 12 3 9 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 69 66 60 61 57 59 55 50 47 57 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 13 13 13 14 16 16 15 11 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 15 3 -37 -19 -16 -30 -61 -72 -78 -23 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 30 36 44 34 70 66 54 1 15 36 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 8 7 3 -3 27 9 17 13 50 44 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 42 -56 -154 -248 -347 -490 -614 -686 -725 -810 -892 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.2 29.0 29.7 30.6 31.5 33.5 35.1 35.9 36.5 37.8 40.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.6 97.1 97.4 97.6 97.0 95.7 94.5 92.9 90.0 85.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 8 7 10 17 20 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 39 41 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 0. -1. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. -1. -5. -6. -9. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022015 BILL 06/16/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022015 BILL 06/16/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022015 BILL 06/16/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED