* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BILL AL022015 06/16/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 55 56 56 58 55 53 48 42 42 40 V (KT) LAND 50 42 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 29 29 29 V (KT) LGE mod 50 42 35 31 29 27 27 27 27 27 29 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 17 15 15 16 19 16 19 15 15 22 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 1 1 0 2 13 2 4 -1 9 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 272 276 282 258 241 250 230 251 255 270 283 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 28.8 27.7 26.4 24.8 22.3 21.0 20.5 19.8 17.8 15.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 148 133 117 103 88 82 80 78 75 71 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 129 115 101 89 77 73 72 71 69 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 11 10 11 11 11 6 9 3 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 67 60 62 61 58 59 53 53 51 56 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 15 17 16 13 11 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 1 -32 -23 3 -50 -19 -86 -66 -129 -5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 45 43 31 40 87 40 45 -5 30 24 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 9 2 -7 -4 3 20 14 22 38 67 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -3 -107 -211 -298 -391 -500 -588 -667 -702 -793 -878 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.2 29.1 30.0 31.0 31.9 33.6 34.9 35.8 36.6 37.8 39.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.7 97.2 97.6 97.7 97.8 97.0 95.5 93.7 91.6 88.9 85.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 14 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 44 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 8. 5. 3. -2. -8. -8. -10. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022015 BILL 06/16/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022015 BILL 06/16/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022015 BILL 06/16/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED