* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BILL AL022015 06/17/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 25 25 25 29 27 25 25 27 30 32 32 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 28 28 29 29 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 17 23 25 22 22 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 4 7 10 4 7 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 272 259 228 237 244 234 259 253 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 25.6 23.7 22.2 21.0 20.3 20.1 19.0 16.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 110 96 88 82 79 79 76 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 113 96 84 78 73 71 71 69 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.8 -53.4 -53.6 -54.4 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 11 13 10 11 6 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 58 57 56 56 53 53 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 15 15 16 19 17 14 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -27 4 -25 -53 -24 -91 -74 -102 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 38 63 61 68 52 36 7 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 1 3 18 10 18 16 25 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -216 -323 -424 -509 -600 -676 -711 -777 -888 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.4 31.5 32.6 33.6 34.6 35.7 36.2 37.3 38.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.1 97.3 97.4 97.2 97.0 95.5 93.5 91.5 89.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 8 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 11 CX,CY: -1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -11. -13. -13. -12. -11. -9. -6. -3. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. -1. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. -5. -1. -3. -5. -5. -3. 0. 2. 2. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022015 BILL 06/17/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022015 BILL 06/17/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022015 BILL 06/17/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)