* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902015 06/27/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 29 30 30 28 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 29 30 30 28 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 28 28 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 8 9 11 8 19 23 26 33 40 39 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 4 4 5 4 11 7 3 1 7 SHEAR DIR 248 272 288 260 266 270 237 241 243 251 270 272 259 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.4 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 147 144 140 136 132 127 125 124 123 122 124 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 83 83 82 80 77 72 71 68 67 63 61 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 16 19 23 30 24 12 4 -4 -2 -12 -14 -25 -22 200 MB DIV 76 47 33 18 0 4 36 53 6 -1 -32 -7 -21 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1908 1791 1674 1570 1465 1273 1066 862 676 521 421 344 272 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 11.9 12.7 13.6 14.6 15.6 16.5 17.0 17.3 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 140.0 141.0 141.9 142.8 143.6 145.2 146.9 148.5 149.9 151.0 151.8 152.5 153.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 6 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 20 9 13 21 26 30 11 3 0 0 2 3 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -3. -7. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -19. -21. -21. -20. -20. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -6. -14. -23. -31. -37. -41. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902015 INVEST 06/27/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 53% is 4.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902015 INVEST 06/27/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##