* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902015 06/27/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 9 13 10 6 18 22 26 41 46 40 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 3 7 5 7 12 9 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 279 299 275 281 286 244 251 252 256 260 285 284 301 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.5 26.9 26.6 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 146 142 139 133 129 124 122 120 119 121 121 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 85 84 82 78 75 74 71 68 65 61 58 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 24 26 15 8 8 1 -4 -15 -23 -30 -26 -20 200 MB DIV 53 33 21 11 1 11 39 46 4 -21 -28 -37 -21 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 -3 3 -1 1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1878 1763 1648 1548 1448 1242 1021 822 673 586 542 505 455 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.8 11.4 11.9 12.3 13.3 14.4 15.6 16.6 17.4 17.5 17.3 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 140.2 141.0 141.9 142.7 143.5 145.1 146.8 148.2 149.2 149.7 150.1 150.6 151.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 10 10 9 9 10 9 8 6 3 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 16 11 17 23 27 18 7 1 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -4. -9. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -15. -17. -18. -18. -18. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -16. -22. -30. -36. -39. -41. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902015 INVEST 06/27/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902015 INVEST 06/27/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##