* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902015 06/28/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 9 8 13 19 19 27 39 43 52 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 2 2 2 0 9 9 5 1 -8 -12 SHEAR DIR 333 293 292 286 278 253 265 255 257 276 289 286 267 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.6 26.3 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 146 143 139 134 129 125 122 121 122 123 125 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 83 82 80 77 75 73 67 67 62 60 56 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 20 13 9 5 2 -5 -3 -5 -11 -22 -21 -22 200 MB DIV 41 34 31 13 -4 1 54 21 5 -26 -38 -27 11 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -2 0 2 2 0 3 1 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1878 1774 1670 1562 1455 1255 1032 858 734 678 644 629 580 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.7 11.2 11.7 12.2 13.1 14.1 14.9 15.6 15.8 15.7 15.4 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 140.2 141.0 141.8 142.7 143.5 145.1 146.9 148.3 149.2 149.7 150.2 150.7 151.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 10 10 9 9 9 7 4 2 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 16 10 15 22 27 23 7 2 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 28. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -4. -8. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. -19. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -15. -15. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -13. -20. -28. -36. -44. -46. -47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902015 INVEST 06/28/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902015 INVEST 06/28/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##