* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902015 06/28/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 12 11 14 26 36 38 49 52 51 45 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 4 0 -1 4 7 3 -1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 293 263 265 257 243 253 271 270 270 284 270 257 248 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.7 26.4 26.1 26.0 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 144 141 136 130 127 123 121 119 120 120 120 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -53.3 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 82 80 76 74 74 69 66 64 61 60 58 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 3 -5 -4 1 0 0 -12 -18 -17 -18 -24 -28 200 MB DIV 29 27 16 10 -5 -7 39 14 5 -12 -2 0 0 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 1 2 6 3 6 0 3 -3 0 -5 LAND (KM) 1828 1732 1636 1541 1447 1251 1055 870 763 696 648 577 521 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.3 11.9 12.4 12.9 13.9 14.9 15.9 16.7 17.1 17.3 17.6 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 140.4 141.0 141.7 142.4 143.1 144.6 146.1 147.5 148.2 148.7 149.1 149.7 150.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 9 8 8 9 9 7 4 2 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 19 23 23 8 3 2 0 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 24. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -12. -18. -23. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -7. -15. -26. -37. -50. -62. -69. -71. -71. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902015 INVEST 06/28/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902015 INVEST 06/28/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##