* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 07/02/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 34 36 38 37 33 26 22 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 34 36 38 37 33 26 22 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 24 24 23 22 20 18 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 4 2 1 4 6 9 10 17 27 40 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -1 -2 -3 1 -2 0 -1 -3 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 39 33 37 355 312 205 180 208 240 229 230 226 221 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.0 25.7 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 144 142 138 134 133 132 130 124 122 123 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.2 -51.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 72 72 71 71 69 70 70 70 68 70 70 68 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 12 11 11 9 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 22 22 18 10 13 18 42 52 61 61 59 38 200 MB DIV 151 134 107 65 45 50 33 22 57 64 61 73 60 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 3 9 11 17 LAND (KM) 2375 2285 2196 2122 2048 1946 1870 1793 1692 1519 1273 986 703 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.9 13.5 13.9 14.4 15.2 16.4 17.8 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 135.0 135.7 136.3 136.8 137.3 137.9 138.4 139.0 139.8 141.2 143.2 145.6 148.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 6 10 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 9 13 23 28 30 23 8 2 2 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 6. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. -16. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 17. 13. 6. 2. -3. -6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 07/02/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 07/02/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##